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Which weather model is most accurate in Milan?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Milan at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the LIML observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 2.69°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Milan's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
UKMO (UK) 1.3° (-0.5°) 2.4° (-2.0°) — 29
DWD ICON 1.7° (-1.3°) 1.7° (-0.9°) — 29
NOAA GFS 1.8° (-0.9°) 2.2° (-1.3°) 3.7° (-1.6°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.9° (-1.4°) 2.1° (-1.9°) 3.5° (-2.3°) 29
ECMWF IFS 2.3° (-1.9°) 2.7° (-1.9°) 4.0° (-2.0°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.5° (-1.8°) 3.0° (-2.1°) 3.4° (+0.3°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.9° (-2.7°) 3.0° (-2.7°) 3.4° (-2.4°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Milan point is the Linate station (LIML), 3.5 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Linate (LIML) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 62–79; it hit 70. GEM led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 62–71; it hit 71. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 60–70; it hit 70. ICON led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 64–66; it hit 71. GFS led (off 2.0°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 59–71; it hit 68. UKMO led (off 0.0°F).
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 66–73; it hit 71. UKMO led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 65–74; it hit 70. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 67–76; it hit 73. GFS led (off 1.4°F); GEM ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 65–72; it hit 70. ICON led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 59–70; it hit 70. UKMO led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 14 days out the models said 68–73; it hit 69. AIFS led (off 2.1°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 70–84; it hit 76. GFS led (off 0.4°F).
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 64–80; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 67–79; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 68–82; it hit 79. GFS led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 73–81; it hit 77. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 65–78; it hit 77. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 68–80; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.2°F).
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 74–81; it hit 79. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 67–74; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 75–79; it hit 76. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 67–76; it hit 74. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 67–76; it hit 78. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 59–79; it hit 76. ICON led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 75–78; it hit 77. AIGFS led (off 0.4°F).
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 69–77; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 1.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 70–81; it hit 83. UKMO led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 73–80; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 1.1°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 13 days out the models said 71–82; it hit 79. UKMO led (off 2.4°F); ICON ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 68–85; it hit 75. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 70–85; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 63–88; it hit 81. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 73–81; it hit 84. GEM led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 70–87; it hit 81. ICON led (off 1.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 75–87; it hit 79. ICON led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 70–76; it hit 79. ICON led (off 1.5°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 69–88; it hit 72. ECMWF led (off 1.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 79. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 78–87; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 81–83; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 72–93; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 78–83; it hit 93. AIGFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 73–83; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 72–81; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 77–92; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 82–92; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 81–86; it hit 88. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 81–85; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 76–92; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 83–87; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 78–85; it hit 84. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 8 days out the models said 79–92; it hit 91. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 7 days out the models said 76–95; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 6 days out the models said 75–96; it hit 88. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 5 days out the models said 86–99; it hit 93. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 15 4 days out the models said 92–98; it hit 95. GEM led (off 0.8°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 3 days out the models said 91–99; it hit 97. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.

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