Was the forecast right for Milan on Wed Sep 16?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 70° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 82° against the LIML observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 70° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 70° | 75° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 69° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 73° | 69° | 75° | — | 81° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 80° | 76° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 82° | 83° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 78° | 83° | 71° | 78° | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 78° | 81° | 71° | 76° | 84° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 75° | 82° | 79° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 77° | 80° | 75° | 82° | 73° | 86° | 79° | 73–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 77° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 81° | 84° | 84° | 77–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 84° | 80° | 83° | 81° | 78° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 76–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 79° | 81° | 76° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 76–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 81° | 83° | 80–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 81° | 81° | 79° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 79–83° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.