Which weather model is most accurate in Milan?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Milan at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the LIML observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.
One day out, DWD ICON has been most accurate (typical miss 1.09°F); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.
The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 3.76°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.41°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DWD ICON | 1.1° (+0.4°) | 2.4° (-1.8°) | — | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.7° (-0.6°) | 1.8° (-1.2°) | 4.0° (-3.3°) | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 2.3° (-1.6°) | 2.6° (-1.4°) | 3.8° (-2.7°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 2.4° (+2.1°) | 1.9° (-0.6°) | — | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 2.5° (-1.1°) | 2.2° (-0.8°) | 5.1° (-3.3°) | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 2.6° (-2.5°) | 3.8° (-3.8°) | 5.9° (-5.7°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.1° (+0.4°) | 3.7° (+1.7°) | 4.4° (+1.4°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.4° (-0.0°) | 1.4° (+0.0°) | 2.6° (-0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Milan point is the Milano Linate station (LIML), 3.5 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is LIML observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the consensus row at the bottom of the table — The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — is shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. NBM, the US official blend these pages benchmark against elsewhere, covers the United States only and has no row for this city. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 82–92; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cold.
- Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 2°F hot.
- Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 81–86; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.1°F).
- Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 81–85; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cold.
- Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 76–92; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 7°F cold.
- Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
- Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 83–87; it hit 88. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
- Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 78–85; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cold.
- Wed Aug 19 8 days out the models said 79–92; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
- Tue Aug 18 7 days out the models said 76–95; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cold.
- Mon Aug 17 6 days out the models said 75–96; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
- Sun Aug 16 5 days out the models said 86–99; it hit 93. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 7°F hot.
- Sat Aug 15 4 days out the models said 92–98; it hit 95. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 5°F hot.
- Fri Aug 14 3 days out the models said 91–99; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.