Was the forecast right for Milan on Sat Sep 5?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 78° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 93° against the LIML observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 83° | 78° | 80° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 80° | 87° | 78° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 83° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 91° | 84° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 84° | 89° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 90° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 94° | 85° | 86° | 89° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 95° | 92° | 92° | 91° | — | — | 89–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 93° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 88–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 92° | 95° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 93° | 90–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 90° | 94° | 96° | 93° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 90–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 93° | 94° | 94° | 91–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 93° | 90–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 93° | 96° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 96° | 91–96° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 93° | 95° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 94° | 91–95° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.