Was the forecast right for Milan on Sat Sep 12?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 75° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 79° against the LIML observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 74° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–74° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 87° | 75° | — | 87° | — | — | 75–87° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 78° | 88° | 75° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 75° | 77° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 75° | 72° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 80° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 78° | 82° | 71° | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 77° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 72° | 75° | 70° | 75° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 82° | 75° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 75° | 77° | 74° | 70° | 76° | 78° | 70–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 75° | 75° | 74° | 68° | 77° | 76° | 78° | 68–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 76–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 75° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 75–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 76° | 76° | 76° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 73–81° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 78° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 76–80° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.