Was the forecast right for Milan on Sun Sep 6?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 72° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 91° against the LIML observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 79° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 81° | 72° | — | 93° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 84° | 84° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 92° | 87° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 80° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 89° | 91° | — | 89° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 94° | 86° | 89° | 90° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 81° | 91° | 91° | 90° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 89° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 92° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 89° | 92° | 96° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 89–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 91° | 88–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 92° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 89–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 89–92° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 89–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.