Was the forecast right for Milan on Mon Sep 21?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 69° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 80° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 75° | 77° | 74° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 72° | 77° | — | 79° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 73° | 77° | — | 81° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 75° | 70° | 75° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 80° | 74° | — | 80° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 76° | 81° | 80° | 73° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 84° | 73° | 84° | 81° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 84° | 78° | 84° | 81° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 86° | 78° | 83° | 82° | 85° | 80° | 78–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 82° | 83° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 89° | 84° | 79–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 81–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 81° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 86° | 81° | 80–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 85° | 81° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 84° | 80–84° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.