Was the forecast right for Milan on Mon Sep 28?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 74° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 79° against the LIML observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 69° | — | — | 65° | — | — | 65–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 81° | 75° | — | 77° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 59° | 75° | — | 62° | — | — | 59–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 67° | 75° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 62° | 80° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 70° | 65° | 80° | — | 75° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 64° | 77° | 79° | 76° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 77° | 75° | 78° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 76° | 81° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 81° | 78° | 80° | 77° | 77–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 77° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 77–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 76° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 76–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 77–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 77–79° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.