Was the forecast right for Milan on Sat Aug 15?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
4 days out, 7 models put Milan's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 33° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 33° | 35° | 35° | 34° | 37° | 34° | 36° | 33–37° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 34° | 35° | 35° | 34° | 38° | 35° | 35° | 34–38° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 34° | 34° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 35° | 35° | 34–37° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 34° | 34° | 36° | 35° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 34–37° |
| actual | 35° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.