Which weather model is most accurate in Berlin?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Berlin at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the EDDB observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, NOAA GFS has been most accurate (typical miss 1.58°F); at three days, NOAA GFS (2.04°F); at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 3.67°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Berlin's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model	1-day	3-day	7-day	Days
NOAA GFS	1.6° (-1.0°)	2.0° (-0.6°)	4.2° (-0.8°)	29
DWD ICON	2.4° (-2.1°)	3.1° (-2.1°)	—	29
UKMO (UK)	2.6° (-2.4°)	3.5° (-2.8°)	—	29
GEM (Canada)	2.7° (-1.9°)	3.1° (-2.1°)	3.6° (-2.0°)	29
ECMWF IFS	3.1° (-2.8°)	3.3° (-2.7°)	3.9° (-3.1°)	29
ECMWF AIFS (AI)	3.2° (-3.0°)	3.4° (-3.0°)	4.8° (-3.1°)	29
NOAA AIGFS (AI)	3.6° (-3.4°)	3.8° (-3.7°)	5.7° (-4.2°)	29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Berlin point is the Brandenburg Airport station (EDDB), 11 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Brandenburg Airport (EDDB) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 53–71; it hit 68. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 48–64; it hit 62. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 51–60; it hit 62. GFS led (off 1.0°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 51–57; it hit 62. GFS led (off 1.9°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 52–67; it hit 58. ICON led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 57–67; it hit 56. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 54–74; it hit 64. GFS led (off 1.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 58–68; it hit 59. UKMO led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 59–73; it hit 67. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F cool.
Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 56–67; it hit 72. GFS led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 53–72; it hit 69. ICON led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 61–74; it hit 72. GFS led (off 1.3°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 61–72; it hit 70. GFS led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 61–74; it hit 66. GFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 2°F warm.
Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 60–77; it hit 64. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 59–82; it hit 78. GFS led (off 1.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 53–70; it hit 76. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 57–81; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 58–65; it hit 77. GFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 57–67; it hit 76. GFS led (off 1.7°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 62–77; it hit 72. GFS led (off 1.4°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 55–71; it hit 59. AIFS led (off 1.2°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 57–70; it hit 63. UKMO led (off 1.5°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 55–77; it hit 69. GFS led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 65–82; it hit 68. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 60–79; it hit 66. GFS led (off 1.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 59–78; it hit 73. GFS led (off 2.0°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 63–80; it hit 72. GEM led (off 1.0°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
Fri Sep 18 13 days out the models said 65–78; it hit 70. GEM led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 64–81; it hit 68. GFS led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 59–64; it hit 70. UKMO led (off 0.8°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 58–84; it hit 79. GFS led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 61–79; it hit 66. AIGFS led (off 1.1°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 67–78; it hit 70. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 64–85; it hit 73. ECMWF led (off 3.3°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
Fri Sep 11 13 days out the models said 59–75; it hit 70. GEM led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
Thu Sep 10 12 days out the models said 64–72; it hit 68. GFS led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
Wed Sep 9 11 days out the models said 59–76; it hit 72. GFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
Tue Sep 8 10 days out the models said 68–78; it hit 84. GFS led (off 1.5°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
Mon Sep 7 9 days out the models said 67–84; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
Sun Sep 6 8 days out the models said 67–83; it hit 70. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
Sat Sep 5 7 days out the models said 66–72; it hit 70. ICON led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
Fri Sep 4 6 days out the models said 65–75; it hit 81. GEM led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
Thu Sep 3 5 days out the models said 66–76; it hit 77. GFS led (off 5.0°F); UKMO ran 8°F cool.
Wed Sep 2 4 days out the models said 72–76; it hit 73. GFS led (off 1.3°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
Tue Sep 1 3 days out the models said 70–73; it hit 75. GFS led (off 1.4°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.

Other cities

Atlanta, Georgia Boston, Massachusetts Buffalo, New York Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Dallas, Texas Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Houston, Texas London, England Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Milan, Lombardy Minneapolis, Minnesota New Orleans, Louisiana New York, New York Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Orlando, Florida Paris, Île-de-France Region Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Phoenix, Arizona Salt Lake City, Utah San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Washington, District of Columbia

The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.