Was the forecast right for Berlin on Fri Sep 4?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
6 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 65° to 75°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 81° against the EDDB observations, with 0.27 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.9°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 65° | 68° | 68° | 75° | 68° | 66° | 69° | 65–75° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 73° | 71° | 74° | 67° | 80° | 68° | 69° | 67–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 74° | 72° | 76° | 74° | 76° | 80° | 72° | 72–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 72° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 70° | 66–79° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 70° | 70° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 66° | 76° | 66–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 74° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 74–79° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 75° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 75–79° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.