Was the forecast right for Berlin on Fri Sep 4?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
6 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 18° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 24°. The day verified at 27° against the EDDB observations, with 6.9 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 18° | 20° | 20° | 24° | 20° | 19° | 21° | 18–24° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 23° | 22° | 23° | 20° | 27° | 20° | 21° | 20–27° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 23° | 22° | 25° | 23° | 24° | 27° | 22° | 22–27° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 19° | 22° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 24° | 21° | 19–26° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 21° | 21° | 24° | 26° | 24° | 19° | 24° | 19–26° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 23° | 23° | 24° | 26° | 25° | 24° | 24° | 23–26° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.