Was the forecast right for Berlin on Fri Oct 2?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 60° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 64° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 55° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 55–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 75° | 61° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 62° | 69° | 64° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 71° | 77° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 62° | 69° | — | 70° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 59° | 74° | — | 74° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 66° | 56° | 70° | 59° | 75° | — | — | 56–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 68° | 72° | 69° | 72° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 69° | 72° | 68° | 69° | 71° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 68° | 71° | 68° | 71° | 70° | 69° | 66° | 66–71° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 70° | 68° | 70° | 71° | 75° | 65° | 73° | 65–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 68° | 68° | 71° | 68° | 71° | 67° | 68° | 67–71° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 67° | 64° | 68° | 70° | 67° | 70° | 70° | 64–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 67° | 64° | 68° | 70° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 64–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 66° | 64° | 66° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 64° | 64–67° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.