Was the forecast right for Berlin on Sun Sep 20?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 59° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 73° against the EDDB observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 82° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 78° | 72° | 73° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 65° | 69° | 62° | — | 82° | — | — | 62–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 74° | 69° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 70° | 70° | 74° | — | 73° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 63° | 61° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–63° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 65° | 62° | 56° | 64° | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 66° | 63° | 68° | 65° | 64° | — | — | 63–68° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 67° | 69° | 60° | 71° | 63° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 72° | 68° | 71° | 73° | 67° | 68° | 67–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 68° | 65° | 71° | 69° | 68° | 71° | 65–71° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 69° | 68° | 69° | 70° | 66° | 65° | 65–70° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 67° | 69° | 64° | 66° | 70° | 67° | 65° | 64–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 66° | 65° | 72° | 70° | 68° | 64° | 64–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 71° | 69° | 67° | 66–71° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 69° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 69° | 70° | 67–72° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.