Was the forecast right for Berlin on Wed Sep 23?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 55° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 69° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 72° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 76° | 55° | — | 61° | — | — | 55–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 64° | 62° | 69° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 67° | 61° | 62° | — | 69° | — | — | 61–69° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 61° | 66° | 78° | — | 63° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 62° | 59° | 65° | — | 62° | — | — | 59–65° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 66° | 69° | 67° | 72° | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 65° | 61° | 64° | 70° | 62° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 67° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 65° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 63° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 64° | 66° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 62° | 63° | 66° | 67° | 65° | 64° | 62–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 63° | 65° | 66° | 69° | 64° | 64° | 63–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 64° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 67° | 64° | 64–67° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 63° | 65° | 64° | 67° | 64° | 65° | 63–67° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 65° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 68° | 66° | 65° | 63–68° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.