Was the forecast right for Berlin on Wed Sep 2?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
4 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 72° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 73° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.3°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 72° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 72–76° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 72° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 74° | 75° | 72° | 70–75° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 71° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 74° | 72° | 72° | 70–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 71° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 75° | 70° | 72° | 70–75° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.