The Spread

Was the forecast right for Berlin on Wed Sep 2?

Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations

4 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 22° to 25°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 23° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

4 days out the models said 22–25; it hit 23. GFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-29 22° 22° 22° 23° 25° 24° 23° 22–25°
3d · 2026-08-30 22° 22° 22° 21° 24° 24° 22° 21–24°
2d · 2026-08-31 22° 21° 23° 21° 23° 22° 22° 21–23°
1d · 2026-09-01 22° 21° 21° 21° 24° 21° 22° 21–24°
0d · 2026-09-02 22° 21° 21° 22° 22° 21° 22° 21–22°
actual 23°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.