Where the weather models disagree in Minneapolis
Minneapolis, MSP station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Wed Nov 4, where 5 of them put Minneapolis's high anywhere from 9° to 17°: GEM coldest, AIFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 7-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead (4 to 7 models across these days), so a narrower far end can mean fewer models.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centers Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are omitted because they average the other models.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. A wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not, so compare each day's Spread with this column.
GEFS p10–p90 is NOAA's GFS ensemble, in its own column because it runs warmer than the other models.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 18° to 21° | 3° | 3° | UKMO 18° | GFS 21° | 17° to 20° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 12° to 14° | 2° | 3° | AIFS 12° | GFS 14° | 13° to 15° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 12° to 14° | 2° | 3° | AIGFS 12° | GFS 14° | 12° to 15° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 11° to 15° | 4° | 4° | ICON 11° | ECMWF 15° | 11° to 14° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 16° to 20° | 4° | 4° | ICON 16° | ECMWF 20° | 12° to 17° |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 15° to 18° | 3° | 6° | GFS 15° | GEM 18° | 13° to 17° |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 13° to 19° | 6° | 6° | GFS 13° | AIFS 19° | 12° to 15° |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 9° to 17° | 8° | 6° | GEM 9° | AIFS 17° | 8° to 16° |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 5° to 13° | 8° | 7° | ECMWF 5° | GFS 13° | 6° to 15° |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 3° to 9° | 6° | 7° | AIGFS 3° | GFS 9° | 6° to 14° |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 5° to 8° | 3° | 7° | AIGFS 5° | AIFS 8° | 4° to 13° |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 6° to 11° | 5° | 8° | AIGFS 6° | AIFS 11° | 4° to 14° |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 3° to 11° | 8° | 8° | AIGFS 3° | AIFS 11° | 6° to 15° |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 4° to 12° | 8° | 8° | AIGFS 4° | AIFS 12° | 4° to 15° |
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