Where the weather models disagree in Paris
Paris, Le Bourget station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Wed Sep 16, where 4 of them put Paris's high anywhere from 15° to 31° — AIGFS coldest, GFS hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 25° to 29° | 4° | — | ECMWF 25° | GEM 29° | 26° to 28° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 27° to 31° | 4° | — | AIGFS 27° | GFS 31° | 26° to 30° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 23° to 26° | 3° | — | UKMO 23° | GFS 26° | 23° to 26° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 27° to 31° | 4° | — | AIFS 27° | ICON 31° | 27° to 31° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 25° to 30° | 5° | — | UKMO 25° | AIGFS 30° | 24° to 30° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 20° to 24° | 4° | — | AIFS 20° | ECMWF 24° | 21° to 23° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 7 | 19° to 22° | 3° | — | UKMO 19° | GFS 22° | 18° to 22° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 17° to 24° | 7° | — | GEM 17° | GFS 24° | 18° to 24° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 16° to 24° | 8° | — | AIGFS 16° | GFS 24° | 20° to 25° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 5 | 17° to 25° | 8° | — | AIGFS 17° | GFS 25° | 19° to 26° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 17° to 27° | 10° | — | AIGFS 17° | GFS 27° | 19° to 25° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 17° to 26° | 9° | — | AIGFS 17° | GFS 26° | 18° to 26° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 17° to 29° | 12° | — | AIGFS 17° | GFS 29° | 19° to 26° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 15° to 31° | 16° | — | AIGFS 15° | GFS 31° | 19° to 27° |
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