Where the weather models disagree in Paris
Paris, Le Bourget station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:51 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Tue Oct 27, where 5 of them put Paris's high anywhere from 11° to 19° — GEM coldest, AIGFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 9-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 12° to 15° | 3° | 2° | AIFS 12° | GFS 15° | 14° to 15° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 12° to 16° | 4° | 3° | AIFS 12° | GEM 16° | 13° to 17° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 13° to 17° | 4° | 3° | ICON 13° | GEM 17° | 14° to 16° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 13° to 16° | 3° | 3° | ECMWF 13° | ICON 16° | 13° to 15° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 14° to 16° | 2° | 4° | GFS 14° | ICON 16° | 14° to 17° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 13° to 15° | 2° | 5° | ECMWF 13° | ICON 15° | 13° to 16° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 7 | 11° to 14° | 3° | 6° | UKMO 11° | ICON 14° | 12° to 15° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 12° to 17° | 5° | 5° | GFS 12° | AIGFS 17° | 12° to 18° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 13° to 18° | 5° | 4° | ECMWF 13° | GFS 18° | 12° to 19° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 5 | 11° to 19° | 8° | 6° | GEM 11° | AIGFS 19° | 13° to 20° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 13° to 18° | 5° | 4° | AIFS 13° | AIGFS 18° | 12° to 18° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 13° to 19° | 6° | 5° | AIFS 13° | AIGFS 19° | 13° to 17° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 14° to 17° | 3° | 6° | GFS 14° | ECMWF 17° | 12° to 18° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 12° to 17° | 5° | 5° | GFS 12° | ECMWF 17° | 12° to 17° |
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