Where the weather models disagree in Berlin
Berlin, Brandenburg station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Tue Sep 15, where 4 of them put Berlin's high anywhere from 13° to 20° — AIGFS coldest, GFS hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 21° to 23° | 2° | — | AIFS 21° | ICON 23° | 20° to 23° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 23° to 26° | 3° | — | AIGFS 23° | GEM 26° | 20° to 25° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 19° to 21° | 2° | — | AIFS 19° | GFS 21° | 18° to 21° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 19° to 22° | 3° | — | AIFS 19° | GFS 22° | 19° to 22° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 23° to 26° | 3° | — | AIFS 23° | UKMO 26° | 23° to 26° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 22° to 28° | 6° | — | UKMO 22° | AIGFS 28° | 20° to 24° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 7 | 19° to 21° | 2° | — | UKMO 19° | ECMWF 21° | 18° to 21° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 19° to 20° | 1° | — | AIFS 19° | GFS 20° | 15° to 20° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 17° to 19° | 2° | — | GEM 17° | ECMWF 19° | 17° to 22° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 5 | 16° to 20° | 4° | — | AIGFS 16° | ECMWF 20° | 16° to 23° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 13° to 19° | 6° | — | AIGFS 13° | AIFS 19° | 15° to 21° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 18° to 20° | 2° | — | AIGFS 18° | GFS 20° | 15° to 21° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 13° to 20° | 7° | — | AIGFS 13° | GFS 20° | 16° to 23° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 17° to 24° | 7° | — | ECMWF 17° | AIFS 24° | 15° to 24° |
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