Where the weather models disagree in Dallas
Dallas, Love Field station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sat Nov 7, where 4 of them put Dallas's high anywhere from 12° to 25°: ECMWF coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is much greater than typical for forecasts with a 10-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead (4 to 7 models across these days), so a narrower far end can mean fewer models.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centers Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are omitted because they average the other models.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. A wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not, so compare each day's Spread with this column.
GEFS p10–p90 is NOAA's GFS ensemble, in its own column because it runs warmer than the other models.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 26° to 29° | 3° | 2° | AIFS 26° | GEM 29° | 27° to 29° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 24° to 29° | 5° | 2° | AIGFS 24° | GEM 29° | 25° to 28° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 22° to 25° | 3° | 3° | AIGFS 22° | GEM 25° | 22° to 25° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 19° to 25° | 6° | 3° | ICON 19° | GEM 25° | 22° to 27° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 22° to 27° | 5° | 3° | AIGFS 22° | GFS 27° | 23° to 29° |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 22° to 29° | 7° | 3° | AIGFS 22° | GFS 29° | 23° to 29° |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 20° to 24° | 4° | 5° | AIGFS 20° | GEM 24° | 20° to 26° |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 16° to 17° | 1° | 4° | GEM 16° | AIGFS 17° | 19° to 25° |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 13° to 22° | 9° | 6° | ECMWF 13° | GFS 22° | 18° to 25° |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 13° to 23° | 10° | 6° | ECMWF 13° | GFS 23° | 17° to 26° |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 12° to 25° | 13° | 6° | ECMWF 12° | GFS 25° | 15° to 23° |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 14° to 25° | 11° | 6° | ECMWF 14° | GFS 25° | 16° to 24° |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 16° to 22° | 6° | 7° | AIGFS 16° | GFS 22° | 15° to 24° |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 11° to 19° | 8° | 8° | AIGFS 11° | ECMWF 19° | 15° to 24° |
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