Where the weather models disagree in Philadelphia
Philadelphia, PHL station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:51 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sat Nov 7, where 4 of them put Philadelphia's high anywhere from 12° to 22°: GFS coldest, ECMWF hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 10-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead (4 to 7 models across these days), so a narrower far end can mean fewer models.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centers Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are omitted because they average the other models.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. A wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not, so compare each day's Spread with this column.
GEFS p10–p90 is NOAA's GFS ensemble, in its own column because it runs warmer than the other models.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 18° to 20° | 2° | 2° | UKMO 18° | GFS 20° | 18° to 20° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 19° to 21° | 2° | 2° | GEM 19° | GFS 21° | 19° to 22° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 21° to 24° | 3° | 2° | UKMO 21° | AIFS 24° | 20° to 23° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 13° to 17° | 4° | 3° | UKMO 13° | ICON 17° | 13° to 16° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 16° to 19° | 3° | 3° | AIGFS 16° | ICON 19° | 15° to 19° |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 18° to 22° | 4° | 4° | ICON 18° | GEM 22° | 15° to 19° |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 16° to 23° | 7° | 5° | GFS 16° | GEM 23° | 15° to 21° |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 15° to 23° | 8° | 4° | GFS 15° | AIGFS 23° | 12° to 23° |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 21° to 23° | 2° | 5° | GFS 21° | GEM 23° | 13° to 21° |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 19° to 23° | 4° | 7° | AIGFS 19° | ECMWF 23° | 11° to 21° |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 12° to 22° | 10° | 7° | GFS 12° | ECMWF 22° | 11° to 19° |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 11° to 20° | 9° | 6° | GFS 11° | AIFS 20° | 11° to 19° |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 11° to 16° | 5° | 8° | ECMWF 11° | AIFS 16° | 10° to 17° |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 12° to 15° | 3° | 7° | ECMWF 12° | AIFS 15° | 11° to 18° |
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