Where the weather models disagree in Denver
Denver, DEN station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sun Nov 8, where 4 of them put Denver's high anywhere from 5° to 18°: AIGFS coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 11-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead (4 to 7 models across these days), so a narrower far end can mean fewer models.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centers Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are omitted because they average the other models.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. A wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not, so compare each day's Spread with this column.
GEFS p10–p90 is NOAA's GFS ensemble, in its own column because it runs warmer than the other models.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 17° to 19° | 2° | 3° | AIGFS 17° | ECMWF 19° | 18° to 19° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 15° to 19° | 4° | 3° | AIFS 15° | ECMWF 19° | 17° to 19° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 13° to 20° | 7° | 3° | AIFS 13° | ECMWF 20° | 16° to 19° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 12° to 18° | 6° | 4° | AIFS 12° | ECMWF 18° | 16° to 19° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 12° to 22° | 10° | 4° | AIFS 12° | ICON 22° | 16° to 20° |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 7° to 15° | 8° | 5° | GEM 7° | ECMWF 15° | 10° to 15° |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 8° to 16° | 8° | 5° | AIGFS 8° | ICON 16° | 8° to 19° |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 6° to 14° | 8° | 6° | AIGFS 6° | GFS 14° | 10° to 17° |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 4° to 16° | 12° | 8° | AIGFS 4° | GFS 16° | 7° to 17° |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 9° to 15° | 6° | 9° | AIGFS 9° | GFS 15° | 6° to 19° |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 9° to 14° | 5° | 9° | AIGFS 9° | GFS 14° | 8° to 15° |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 5° to 18° | 13° | 8° | AIGFS 5° | GFS 18° | 8° to 13° |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 3° to 14° | 11° | 8° | AIGFS 3° | ECMWF 14° | 7° to 15° |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 8° to 16° | 8° | 10° | AIGFS 8° | ECMWF 16° | 7° to 15° |
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