Where the weather models disagree in San Antonio
San Antonio, SAT station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Sep 4, where 7 of them put San Antonio's high anywhere from 82° to 98° — GFS coldest, ECMWF hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 97° to 102° | 5° | — | AIFS 97° | UKMO 102° | 97° to 102° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 82° to 98° | 16° | — | GFS 82° | ECMWF 98° | 82° to 95° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 92° to 97° | 5° | — | GFS 92° | GEM 97° | 84° to 97° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 93° to 100° | 7° | — | AIGFS 93° | ICON 100° | 92° to 98° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 94° to 100° | 6° | — | AIGFS 94° | ICON 100° | 92° to 99° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 84° to 100° | 16° | — | UKMO 84° | GFS 100° | 93° to 100° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 88° to 97° | 9° | — | ECMWF 88° | GEM 97° | 88° to 100° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 91° to 99° | 8° | — | ECMWF 91° | GFS 99° | 84° to 100° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 94° to 101° | 7° | — | AIGFS 94° | GFS 101° | 90° to 103° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 94° to 101° | 7° | — | AIGFS 94° | GFS 101° | 91° to 103° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 89° to 101° | 12° | — | ECMWF 89° | AIFS 101° | 91° to 99° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 91° to 101° | 10° | — | ECMWF 91° | GFS 101° | 92° to 98° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 91° to 101° | 10° | — | ECMWF 91° | GFS 101° | 92° to 100° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 92° to 100° | 8° | — | ECMWF 92° | GFS 100° | 90° to 99° |
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