Where the models came closer or pulled apart
GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, GEM · Run 00Z 16 Oct → 12Z 16 Oct · +54 h · Valid Sun 18Z 18 Oct
Change in the gap between the warmest and coolest of these models since the previous run
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, GEM · Run 00Z 16 Oct → 12Z 16 Oct · +54 h · Valid Sun 18Z 18 Oct
Change in the gap between the warmest and coolest of these models since the previous run
Converged ← °F → diverged · range -15.2 to +13.3 °F
Since the 00Z 16 Oct run, the models came 2 °F or more closer over 6% of this map and moved that far apart over 3%; the median point changed by -0.1 °F.
Shows how the gap between the warmest and coolest of these models at 18Z 18 Oct changed since the previous run all 4 share, for the same moment.
Methodology
The Spread map for this day — the gap between the warmest and coolest of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, GEM — minus the same gap as the 00Z 16 Oct run drew it, 12 hours earlier. Both maps are for the same moment and from the same four models, so a model missing from one run cannot make the others look closer.
The older run saw this moment 12 hours further ahead, and models usually agree more as a day gets nearer, so some closing is expected anywhere. The median point says how much: where the shading is much deeper than that, the change is about that place.
Nothing here is smoothed, and every model enters as its own uncorrected output, as on the Spread map.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of NOAA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- NOAA: GFS, from NOAA's NOMADS server. US government data, not subject to copyright (NOAA/NWS terms of use).
- ECMWF: IFS and AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: GEM, from the MSC Datamart. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, under its Data Services End-use Licence.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.