Region Northeast
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Showing Thursday 1 October only — the other 13 days did not load. Reload the page to play them.
ECMWF · Run 00Z 1 Oct · Valid Thu 1 Oct highest of 8 × 3 h maxima
Warmest 38.5 °C · coolest -1.8 °C
Warmest 41.2 °C · coolest 0.3 °C
Warmest 40.7 °C · coolest 1.6 °C
Warmest 41.1 °C · coolest 4.2 °C
Warmest 40.2 °C · coolest 2.9 °C
Warmest 40.9 °C · coolest 1.5 °C
Warmest 42.1 °C · coolest 1.3 °C
Warmest 43.3 °C · coolest 1.9 °C
Warmest 42.6 °C · coolest 0.2 °C
Warmest 41.9 °C · coolest -2.7 °C
Warmest 41.2 °C · coolest -2.7 °C
Warmest 42.2 °C · coolest -1.9 °C
Warmest 41.9 °C · coolest -4.9 °C
Warmest 40.6 °C · coolest -4.7 °C
The highest temperature each point reaches over the whole of the day you choose.
Methodology
A day here runs 06Z to 06Z over 64% of the map, and 09Z over 32% of it. The model files its maxima in blocks of 3 to 6 hours, narrower for the nearer days and wider further out — that is how the model publishes it, not a choice this map makes — and each column takes the blocks covering its own local day rather than one window for the whole continent. These are the model's own maxima, so a high here can read a little warmer than the same model's on a city's forecast, which is the warmest of its hourly values. The dashed line, when it appears, is 0 °C.
How far out is it worth reading? Scored against 30 years of each city's own records for the same date, this model's daily high beats simply knowing what is normal out to about day 7 — measured on 7,148 forecasts across 30 cities since 2026-08-22, and re-read every day rather than written down. Those 39 days ran +1.1 °C from normal, which makes the almanac a weaker opponent than usual — so expect the day to move as the record lengthens.
ECMWF. Of the four models on these pages, two file a daily extremum at all — GFS in 6-hour blocks; ECMWF in 3-hour blocks out to day 6 and 6-hour beyond. The other two publish temperature at instants, from which a daily high cannot honestly be recovered. The switch above draws the same day from the other one.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.