The Spread Maps Request an invite

MSLP + precip rate

All maps

Choose a map

ECMWF · Run 00Z 1 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 00Z 1 Oct

Surface pressure (hPa) and instantaneous precip rate (mm/h)

ECMWF · Run 00Z 1 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 00Z 1 Oct

Surface pressure (hPa) and instantaneous precip rate (mm/h)

Heaviest rate 21.0 mm/h, near 20.75N 89.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling

One ECMWF run — issued 00Z 1 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 120 hours out.

Methodology

Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 120 hours. ECMWF's 00Z run forecasts out to 360 hours; this film stops at 120. The frames past the one shown load on demand.

This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page.

Sources and licences
  • ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.

What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.

Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.