Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (mm/h)
GEM · Run 12Z 1 Oct · +6 h · Valid Thu 18Z 1 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (mm/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.46 mm/h, near 39.0N 99.9W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.39 mm/h, near 37.8N 100.05W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 32.22 mm/h, near 26.25N 99.15W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 29.81 mm/h, near 25.2N 99.6W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.2 mm/h, near 28.35N 97.95W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 14.91 mm/h, near 32.1N 82.05W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 18.08 mm/h, near 22.35N 99.3W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 10.28 mm/h, near 21.15N 98.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.72 mm/h, near 29.25N 94.2W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 17.58 mm/h, near 20.25N 112.95W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 17.2 mm/h, near 30.75N 82.05W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 16.74 mm/h, near 25.65N 98.85W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 15.23 mm/h, near 30.3N 90.9W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.82 mm/h, near 20.1N 96.15W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 19.66 mm/h, near 25.05N 99.15W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 20.58 mm/h, near 21.3N 97.65W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 18.6 mm/h, near 21.0N 96.6W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 12.8 mm/h, near 29.85N 81.6W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 7.58 mm/h, near 28.65N 81.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 16.55 mm/h, near 20.55N 97.05W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.25 mm/h falling
One GEM run — issued 12Z 1 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 120 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 4 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 120 hours. GEM forecasts out to 240 hours; this film stops at 120. The frames past the one shown load on demand. GEM publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of Environment and Climate Change Canada. The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: GEM, from the MSC Datamart. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, under its Data Services End-use Licence.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.