Run total + precip rate + MSLP
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 00Z 16 Oct · +0 h · Valid Fri 00Z 16 Oct
ECMWF · Run 00Z 16 Oct · +0 h · Valid Fri 00Z 16 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.25 mm yet · heaviest rate 17.82 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 82 mm at 20.0N 108.5W · heaviest rate 40.43 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 98 mm at 20.0N 108.5W · heaviest rate 32.84 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 111 mm, 270 km S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico · heaviest rate 21.11 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 115 mm, 270 km S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico · heaviest rate 21.97 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 115 mm, 270 km S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.51 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 119 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.2 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 132 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 20.98 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 141 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 24.25 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 254 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 54.7 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 335 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 47.69 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 376 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 36.91 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 394 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 36.07 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 397 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 32.87 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 402 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 26.43 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 406 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 34.55 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 409 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 25.48 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 411 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 20.3 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 413 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.81 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 414 mm at 35.75N 69.0W · heaviest rate 13.83 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 421 mm at 35.75N 69.0W · heaviest rate 12.87 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 435 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 14.71 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 465 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 32.44 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 484 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 43.24 mm/h at Wed 18Z
Wettest so far 486 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 34.06 mm/h at Thu 00Z
Wettest so far 489 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.57 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 491 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 20.07 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 494 mm at 38.5N 69.5W · heaviest rate 13.35 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 499 mm at 38.5N 69.5W · heaviest rate 24.85 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 499 mm at 38.5N 69.5W · heaviest rate 27.53 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 506 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.19 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 506 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 11.16 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 14.66 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.78 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.67 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.85 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.38 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 23.73 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.89 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 508 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.99 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 508 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.9 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 508 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 18.64 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 526 mm at 35.75N 69.0W · heaviest rate 23.0 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 528 mm at 35.75N 69.0W · heaviest rate 34.93 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 618 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 29.98 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 630 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 14.15 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 634 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 13.08 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 635 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 17.71 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 636 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 23.3 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 637 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 20.58 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 637 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 11.63 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 637 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 27.09 mm/h at Wed 18Z
Wettest so far 638 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 19.43 mm/h at Thu 00Z
Wettest so far 646 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 25.32 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 656 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 37.77 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 656 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 11.36 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 657 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 16.01 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 657 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 24.3 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 657 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 16.29 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 657 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 25.9 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 657 mm at 38.5N 69.75W · heaviest rate 33.41 mm/h at Sat 00Z
One ECMWF run, issued 00Z 16 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.