Run total + precip rate + MSLP
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
ECMWF · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.25 mm yet · heaviest rate 16.42 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 47 mm, 90 km NNE of Abilene, Texas · heaviest rate 15.71 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 105 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 32.32 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 136 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 19.58 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 150 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 17.41 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 150 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 19.34 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 150 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 16.43 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 150 mm, 60 km WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 13.14 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 160 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.29 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 169 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 23.88 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 325 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 47.72 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 472 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 41.75 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 27.76 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 540 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 36.05 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 549 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 46.72 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 555 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 59.06 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 564 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 28.23 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 565 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 36.26 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 566 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 19.79 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 569 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 19.53 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 569 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.84 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 575 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.88 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 587 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.08 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 605 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.09 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 618 mm, 100 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.42 mm/h at Wed 18Z
One ECMWF run, issued 18Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 144 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 144 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.