Run total + precip rate + MSLP
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 12Z 15 Oct
ECMWF · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 12Z 15 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.25 mm yet · heaviest rate 19.12 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 53 mm, 35 km N of Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 13.56 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 75 mm, 35 km WNW of Ardmore, Oklahoma · heaviest rate 17.38 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 101 mm, 80 km SSE of San Angelo, Texas · heaviest rate 21.85 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 149 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 22.18 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 161 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 20.03 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 161 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 22.51 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 161 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 15.96 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 161 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 17.52 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 161 mm at 20.0N 109.25W · heaviest rate 21.64 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 168 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 47.13 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 288 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 36.24 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 370 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 21.69 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 414 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 29.36 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 431 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 35.23 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 440 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 64.96 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 441 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 44.58 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 443 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 40.2 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 446 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 45.82 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 447 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 42.02 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 452 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 27.15 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 453 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.9 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 455 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.17 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 471 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 20.28 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 490 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.22 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 501 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.78 mm/h at Wed 18Z
Wettest so far 503 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 12.0 mm/h at Thu 00Z
Wettest so far 503 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 12.0 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 504 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 14.38 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 507 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.03 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 508 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 12.65 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 512 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 16.8 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 516 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 9.22 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 517 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.39 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 518 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 12.34 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 518 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.73 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.94 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 12.34 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 14.11 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.13 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.37 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 519 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.2 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 521 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 14.09 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 526 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 18.11 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 531 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 21.69 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 20.85 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 21.1 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 14.4 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 21.57 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 23.63 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 543 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 15.62 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 544 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 12.05 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 544 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 12.14 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 544 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 14.33 mm/h at Wed 18Z
Wettest so far 544 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 13.55 mm/h at Thu 00Z
Wettest so far 545 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 14.14 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 545 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 11.98 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 545 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 15.4 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 545 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 23.81 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 545 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 24.19 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 546 mm at 35.25N 68.25W · heaviest rate 15.93 mm/h at Fri 12Z
One ECMWF run, issued 12Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.