Run total + precip rate + MSLP
ECMWF · Run 06Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 06Z 15 Oct
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 06Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 06Z 15 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.25 mm yet · heaviest rate 16.34 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 50 mm, 55 km SE of Lawton, Oklahoma · heaviest rate 17.18 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 93 mm near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 17.69 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 101 mm near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 20.17 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 101 mm near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 36.5 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 108 mm, 105 km SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 18.8 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 120 mm, 105 km SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 13.95 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 120 mm, 105 km SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 20.84 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 120 mm, 105 km SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 12.55 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 120 mm, 105 km SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 22.71 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 137 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 19.48 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 148 mm, 45 km WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 46.89 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 255 mm, 80 km NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 52.58 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 418 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 39.17 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 472 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 29.84 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 496 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 30.46 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 499 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 45.37 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 502 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 20.71 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 504 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 22.94 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 505 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 42.61 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 513 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 26.89 mm/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 521 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 30.85 mm/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 547 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 26.29 mm/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 552 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 17.01 mm/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 574 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 15.96 mm/h at Wed 06Z
One ECMWF run, issued 06Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 144 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 144 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.