Run total + precip rate + MSLP
ECMWF · Run 06Z 14 Oct · +0 h · Valid Wed 06Z 14 Oct
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 06Z 14 Oct · +0 h · Valid Wed 06Z 14 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.25 mm yet · heaviest rate 18.22 mm/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 54 mm, 295 km WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico · heaviest rate 23.03 mm/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 68 mm, 295 km WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico · heaviest rate 13.48 mm/h at Wed 18Z
Wettest so far 82 mm at 20.0N 108.5W · heaviest rate 18.66 mm/h at Thu 00Z
Wettest so far 82 mm at 20.0N 108.5W · heaviest rate 18.17 mm/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 83 mm at 20.0N 108.5W · heaviest rate 14.62 mm/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 104 mm, 45 km NE of Vernon, Texas · heaviest rate 16.3 mm/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 107 mm, 45 km NE of Vernon, Texas · heaviest rate 32.62 mm/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 139 mm, 130 km NNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 24.44 mm/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 171 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 23.14 mm/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 189 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 18.48 mm/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 191 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 30.22 mm/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 191 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 19.22 mm/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 191 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 18.7 mm/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 191 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 25.21 mm/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 191 mm, 150 km SE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 25.87 mm/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 214 mm, 110 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 27.38 mm/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 284 mm, 85 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 50.19 mm/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 307 mm, 85 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 32.86 mm/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 310 mm, 85 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 34.48 mm/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 313 mm, 85 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 35.84 mm/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 316 mm, 85 km ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 78.61 mm/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 326 mm at 30.25N 68.5W · heaviest rate 21.01 mm/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 346 mm at 30.25N 68.5W · heaviest rate 22.91 mm/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 349 mm at 30.25N 68.5W · heaviest rate 21.63 mm/h at Tue 06Z
One ECMWF run, issued 06Z 14 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 144 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 144 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.