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ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct

ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 15 Oct · +6 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct

Wettest 21 mm near Lawton, Oklahoma · to Thu 18Z

One ECMWF AIFS run, issued 12Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 to 360 hours out.

Methodology

Each frame is everything this run puts down from its start to that hour, so the map fills in as the film plays and its last frame is the run's whole total. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to.

The colours are Tropical Tidbits' scale, so a reader who knows theirs can read this one. Three of its steps are re-shaded: at 0.5 in, at 2 in — where, on theirs, a reader with protanopia sees the 1.75–2 in band and the 2–2.5 in band as one colour — and among the yellows above 12 in. Same hues; the lightness is re-spaced so every step is visible in every common form of colour-blindness.

Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.

This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.

Sources and licences
  • ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.

What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.

Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.