Where the weather models disagree in St. Louis
St. Louis, Lambert station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sat Sep 12, where 4 of them put St. Louis's high anywhere from 69° to 103° — ECMWF coldest, GFS hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 98° to 103° | 5° | — | UKMO 98° | GFS 103° | 97° to 100° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 97° to 103° | 6° | — | UKMO 97° | GFS 103° | 98° to 102° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 97° to 107° | 10° | — | AIFS 97° | GFS 107° | 99° to 105° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 88° to 95° | 7° | — | AIFS 88° | GFS 95° | 89° to 102° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 86° to 93° | 7° | — | AIFS 86° | GFS 93° | 90° to 101° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 92° to 103° | 11° | — | AIFS 92° | GFS 103° | 96° to 104° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 89° to 109° | 20° | — | ICON 89° | GFS 109° | 96° to 106° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 88° to 103° | 15° | — | AIFS 88° | GFS 103° | 90° to 105° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 81° to 97° | 16° | — | AIFS 81° | GEM 97° | 84° to 106° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 69° to 103° | 34° | — | ECMWF 69° | GFS 103° | 86° to 103° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 75° to 104° | 29° | — | ECMWF 75° | GFS 104° | 80° to 102° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 78° to 86° | 8° | — | ECMWF 78° | AIGFS 86° | 78° to 101° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 79° to 86° | 7° | — | AIGFS 79° | GFS 86° | 78° to 101° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 82° to 85° | 3° | — | AIGFS 82° | GFS 85° | 79° to 96° |
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