Where the weather models disagree in Denver
Denver, DEN station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Thu Oct 29, where 4 of them put Denver's high anywhere from 35° to 63° — AIFS coldest, AIGFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 11-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 70° to 74° | 4° | 5° | AIGFS 70° | ECMWF 74° | 71° to 73° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 63° to 69° | 6° | 5° | AIGFS 63° | UKMO 69° | 65° to 70° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 68° to 71° | 3° | 6° | AIGFS 68° | ECMWF 71° | 69° to 72° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 71° to 77° | 6° | 6° | AIGFS 71° | ECMWF 77° | 71° to 74° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 68° to 77° | 9° | 7° | AIFS 68° | ECMWF 77° | 70° to 76° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 74° to 81° | 7° | 8° | GEM 74° | ICON 81° | 70° to 78° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 55° to 68° | 13° | 10° | GFS 55° | GEM 68° | 56° to 67° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 52° to 71° | 19° | 10° | AIFS 52° | ECMWF 71° | 54° to 69° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 49° to 69° | 20° | 15° | GEM 49° | ECMWF 69° | 55° to 70° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 58° to 75° | 17° | 16° | AIGFS 58° | ECMWF 75° | 56° to 71° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 51° to 70° | 19° | 18° | AIFS 51° | ECMWF 70° | 53° to 64° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 35° to 63° | 28° | 18° | AIFS 35° | AIGFS 63° | 52° to 64° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 46° to 66° | 20° | 16° | AIFS 46° | ECMWF 66° | 47° to 63° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 46° to 69° | 23° | 17° | AIGFS 46° | ECMWF 69° | 45° to 61° |
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