MSLP + precip rate
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 00Z 16 Oct · +6 h · Valid Fri 06Z 16 Oct
ECMWF AIFS · Run 00Z 16 Oct · +6 h · Valid Fri 06Z 16 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.229 in/h, near 29.25N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.207 in/h, near 20.25N 109.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.171 in/h, near 53.75N 129.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.165 in/h, near 20.75N 98.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.295 in/h, near 20.0N 97.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.256 in/h, near 20.25N 96.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.269 in/h, near 20.5N 96.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.299 in/h, near 20.5N 95.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.362 in/h, near 20.0N 95.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.522 in/h, near 20.0N 105.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.512 in/h, near 20.25N 106.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.333 in/h, near 20.75N 106.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.249 in/h, near 20.75N 106.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.172 in/h, near 34.25N 73.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.225 in/h, near 34.5N 74.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.286 in/h, near 34.25N 75.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.187 in/h, near 39.75N 66.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.191 in/h, near 40.75N 65.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.122 in/h, near 35.0N 75.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.109 in/h, near 35.25N 75.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.143 in/h, near 55.0N 130.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.151 in/h, near 53.0N 128.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.076 in/h, near 52.75N 127.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.087 in/h, near 31.0N 111.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.065 in/h, near 38.25N 69.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.087 in/h, near 39.5N 68.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.101 in/h, near 34.25N 65.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.128 in/h, near 35.25N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.163 in/h, near 36.5N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.088 in/h, near 39.0N 66.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.094 in/h, near 38.25N 66.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.1 in/h, near 42.25N 133.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.124 in/h, near 42.75N 130.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.125 in/h, near 43.0N 128.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.081 in/h, near 20.25N 78.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.08 in/h, near 42.0N 124.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.066 in/h, near 33.25N 76.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.082 in/h, near 27.75N 70.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.107 in/h, near 30.25N 67.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.124 in/h, near 31.0N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.097 in/h, near 31.5N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.113 in/h, near 33.0N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.12 in/h, near 33.5N 67.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.103 in/h, near 34.0N 66.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.114 in/h, near 35.25N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.116 in/h, near 35.75N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.093 in/h, near 20.0N 115.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 20.0N 116.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.143 in/h, near 20.0N 116.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.159 in/h, near 20.0N 116.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.173 in/h, near 21.5N 117.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.195 in/h, near 21.75N 117.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.182 in/h, near 21.75N 116.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.135 in/h, near 20.0N 116.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.104 in/h, near 23.0N 116.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.132 in/h, near 55.0N 132.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.156 in/h, near 53.5N 130.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.167 in/h, near 53.5N 129.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.118 in/h, near 52.75N 127.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.079 in/h, near 33.25N 89.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 00Z 16 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.