MSLP + precip rate
ECMWF AIFS · Run 06Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 12Z 14 Oct
Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 06Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 12Z 14 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.266 in/h, near 20.0N 108.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.176 in/h, near 20.0N 108.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.077 in/h, near 33.0N 100.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.097 in/h, near 34.25N 98.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.14 in/h, near 20.0N 108.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.156 in/h, near 20.0N 108.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.159 in/h, near 55.0N 131.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.223 in/h, near 29.5N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.219 in/h, near 29.25N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.187 in/h, near 53.75N 129.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.16 in/h, near 20.75N 98.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.316 in/h, near 20.0N 97.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.286 in/h, near 20.25N 96.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.285 in/h, near 20.5N 95.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.245 in/h, near 20.5N 95.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.282 in/h, near 20.0N 95.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.283 in/h, near 20.0N 104.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.211 in/h, near 20.0N 95.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.127 in/h, near 20.0N 94.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.16 in/h, near 31.0N 66.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.168 in/h, near 30.75N 66.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.153 in/h, near 31.5N 65.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.131 in/h, near 31.5N 65.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.138 in/h, near 33.0N 65.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.175 in/h, near 33.25N 66.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.193 in/h, near 34.25N 65.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.232 in/h, near 34.5N 66.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.254 in/h, near 34.75N 67.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.248 in/h, near 35.5N 66.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.234 in/h, near 36.5N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.197 in/h, near 37.0N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.149 in/h, near 37.75N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.121 in/h, near 38.5N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.114 in/h, near 35.25N 68.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.117 in/h, near 36.0N 68.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.174 in/h, near 37.0N 67.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.191 in/h, near 38.0N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.125 in/h, near 50.0N 132.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.124 in/h, near 53.25N 130.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.098 in/h, near 43.25N 102.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.101 in/h, near 44.25N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.116 in/h, near 53.5N 129.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.193 in/h, near 52.5N 128.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.21 in/h, near 52.75N 128.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.258 in/h, near 52.75N 128.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.3 in/h, near 52.5N 128.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.208 in/h, near 52.0N 127.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.147 in/h, near 51.0N 125.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.083 in/h, near 49.5N 122.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.109 in/h, near 48.75N 121.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.126 in/h, near 47.75N 121.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.09 in/h, near 48.25N 113.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.075 in/h, near 27.75N 100.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.235 in/h, near 27.75N 96.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.341 in/h, near 28.25N 95.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.276 in/h, near 28.75N 94.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.199 in/h, near 29.75N 93.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.157 in/h, near 21.0N 120.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.27 in/h, near 22.0N 118.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.262 in/h, near 22.0N 117.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 06Z 14 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.