Region Lower 48
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 00Z 5 Oct · +6 h · Valid Mon 06Z 5 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.477 in/h, near 20.0N 114.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.419 in/h, near 20.25N 115.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.454 in/h, near 20.25N 116.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.353 in/h, near 20.0N 117.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.379 in/h, near 20.25N 117.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.382 in/h, near 20.25N 118.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.31 in/h, near 20.25N 119.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.257 in/h, near 20.5N 119.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.228 in/h, near 21.75N 121.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.215 in/h, near 22.75N 94.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.241 in/h, near 22.5N 93.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.2 in/h, near 22.75N 92.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.299 in/h, near 22.75N 91.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.351 in/h, near 23.0N 91.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.395 in/h, near 23.25N 90.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.275 in/h, near 23.75N 89.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.391 in/h, near 24.25N 88.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.376 in/h, near 25.25N 88.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.499 in/h, near 26.5N 87.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.527 in/h, near 27.75N 86.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 00Z 5 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 120 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 120 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours; this film stops at 120. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.