MSLP + precip rate
ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 18Z 14 Oct
Region Northern Plains
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
ECMWF AIFS · Run 12Z 14 Oct · +6 h · Valid Wed 18Z 14 Oct
Surface pressure (hPa) and 6-hour averaged precip rate (in/h)
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.246 in/h, near 20.0N 108.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.107 in/h, near 33.5N 100.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.112 in/h, near 35.5N 98.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.145 in/h, near 35.5N 96.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.118 in/h, near 55.0N 134.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.161 in/h, near 55.0N 131.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.22 in/h, near 29.25N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.215 in/h, near 29.25N 101.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.18 in/h, near 53.75N 129.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.179 in/h, near 21.0N 98.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.333 in/h, near 20.0N 97.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.282 in/h, near 20.25N 96.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.28 in/h, near 20.5N 95.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.238 in/h, near 20.75N 95.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.302 in/h, near 20.0N 95.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.287 in/h, near 20.0N 104.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.231 in/h, near 20.0N 104.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.186 in/h, near 34.25N 66.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.225 in/h, near 34.25N 66.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.23 in/h, near 34.5N 67.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.179 in/h, near 35.25N 67.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.225 in/h, near 34.5N 71.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.241 in/h, near 34.5N 72.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.256 in/h, near 39.5N 65.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.268 in/h, near 40.25N 65.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.119 in/h, near 40.5N 65.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 55.0N 131.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.164 in/h, near 53.5N 129.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.133 in/h, near 35.5N 70.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.173 in/h, near 35.25N 70.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.148 in/h, near 35.25N 71.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.129 in/h, near 35.0N 73.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.114 in/h, near 35.0N 73.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.133 in/h, near 35.25N 72.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.139 in/h, near 35.5N 72.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.141 in/h, near 35.5N 72.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.145 in/h, near 35.75N 72.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.191 in/h, near 36.0N 72.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.198 in/h, near 36.0N 72.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.181 in/h, near 36.5N 70.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.217 in/h, near 36.75N 69.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.291 in/h, near 37.0N 68.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.349 in/h, near 37.25N 68.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.322 in/h, near 37.25N 68.5W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.247 in/h, near 37.5N 69.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.19 in/h, near 37.5N 69.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.145 in/h, near 37.75N 70.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.086 in/h, near 38.0N 69.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.084 in/h, near 40.75N 68.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.103 in/h, near 41.75N 66.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.135 in/h, near 55.0N 130.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.128 in/h, near 54.5N 130.25W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.119 in/h, near 52.5N 128.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.087 in/h, near 27.25N 109.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.095 in/h, near 52.5N 128.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.194 in/h, near 52.75N 127.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.239 in/h, near 52.5N 127.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.205 in/h, near 52.5N 127.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.144 in/h, near 26.5N 109.75W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
Heaviest 6-hour mean 0.17 in/h, near 26.75N 110.0W · unshaded ground is where the model has under 0.01 in/h falling
One ECMWF AIFS run — issued 12Z 14 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from 6 hours out to 360 hours out.
Methodology
Step forward and the pressure pattern moves, and the precipitation under it moves with it: that motion is the weather this run forecasts, not the forecast changing — Forecast Evolution is the film for that. Same chart grammar as the surface analysis: the same reduction, the same 2 hPa interval, the same frame; only the forecast hour varies. Six-hourly to 360 hours. ECMWF AIFS forecasts out to 360 hours. The frames past the one shown load on demand. ECMWF AIFS publishes no precipitation rate, so the shading here is the 6-hour mean rate — the run's total precipitation at each frame less the total 6 hours before, over 6 — on the same scale as the instant the other models shade with. A mean over 6 hours is smoother and weaker than an instant, so its heavy bands light less often on the same weather; and because no 6-hour bucket ends at the analysis, this film opens at +6 h rather than showing one frame with no rain under it.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: AIFS Single, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.