Run total + precip rate + MSLP
Region Northeast
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
ECMWF · Run 18Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 18Z 15 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.01 in yet · heaviest rate 0.646 in/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 1.86 in, 55 mi NNE of Abilene, Texas · heaviest rate 0.618 in/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 4.14 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 1.273 in/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 5.37 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 0.771 in/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 5.91 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 0.685 in/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 5.92 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 0.761 in/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 5.92 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 0.647 in/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 5.92 in, 40 mi WNW of Del Rio, Texas · heaviest rate 0.517 in/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 6.31 in, 30 mi WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.602 in/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 6.67 in, 30 mi WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.94 in/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 12.81 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.879 in/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 18.57 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.644 in/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 20.43 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.093 in/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 21.25 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.419 in/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 21.63 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.839 in/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 21.86 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 2.325 in/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 22.19 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.111 in/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 22.25 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.427 in/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 22.29 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.779 in/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 22.39 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.769 in/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 22.42 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.663 in/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 22.64 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.665 in/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 23.13 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.673 in/h at Wed 06Z
Wettest so far 23.82 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.634 in/h at Wed 12Z
Wettest so far 24.34 in, 65 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.686 in/h at Wed 18Z
One ECMWF run, issued 18Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 144 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 144 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.