Run total + precip rate + MSLP
ECMWF · Run 06Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 06Z 15 Oct
Region Mid-Atlantic
United States
Europe
The readings under the map are for the whole map, not only the part shown.
ECMWF · Run 06Z 15 Oct · +0 h · Valid Thu 06Z 15 Oct
Nothing on the map has reached 0.01 in yet · heaviest rate 0.643 in/h at Thu 06Z
Wettest so far 1.97 in, 35 mi SE of Lawton, Oklahoma · heaviest rate 0.677 in/h at Thu 12Z
Wettest so far 3.67 in near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 0.696 in/h at Thu 18Z
Wettest so far 3.97 in near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 0.794 in/h at Fri 00Z
Wettest so far 3.99 in near Wichita Falls, Texas · heaviest rate 1.437 in/h at Fri 06Z
Wettest so far 4.26 in, 65 mi SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 0.74 in/h at Fri 12Z
Wettest so far 4.71 in, 65 mi SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 0.549 in/h at Fri 18Z
Wettest so far 4.74 in, 65 mi SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 0.821 in/h at Sat 00Z
Wettest so far 4.74 in, 65 mi SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 0.494 in/h at Sat 06Z
Wettest so far 4.74 in, 65 mi SSE of Alpine, Texas · heaviest rate 0.894 in/h at Sat 12Z
Wettest so far 5.40 in, 30 mi WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.767 in/h at Sat 18Z
Wettest so far 5.81 in, 30 mi WNW of Teziutlán, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.846 in/h at Sun 00Z
Wettest so far 10.03 in, 50 mi NE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 2.07 in/h at Sun 06Z
Wettest so far 16.48 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.542 in/h at Sun 12Z
Wettest so far 18.58 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.175 in/h at Sun 18Z
Wettest so far 19.52 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.199 in/h at Mon 00Z
Wettest so far 19.66 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.786 in/h at Mon 06Z
Wettest so far 19.75 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.815 in/h at Mon 12Z
Wettest so far 19.83 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.903 in/h at Mon 18Z
Wettest so far 19.86 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.678 in/h at Tue 00Z
Wettest so far 20.18 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.059 in/h at Tue 06Z
Wettest so far 20.52 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.214 in/h at Tue 12Z
Wettest so far 21.55 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 1.035 in/h at Tue 18Z
Wettest so far 21.73 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.67 in/h at Wed 00Z
Wettest so far 22.59 in, 70 mi ENE of Nautla, Mexico · heaviest rate 0.628 in/h at Wed 06Z
One ECMWF run, issued 06Z 15 Oct — played forward 6 hours at a time, from its analysis to 144 hours out.
Methodology
Two of this site's films laid one over the other. Underneath is the Run total: everything this run puts down from its start to each frame, on Tropical Tidbits' scale. On top is the pressure Time lapse: the precipitation falling at that frame's time, on the radar scale, and the sea-level pressure at that time in 2 hPa isobars. So the rate moves on as the film plays and leaves its total behind it. The first frame is the analysis, where the run has put nothing down yet.
The total is a window and the rate and the pressure are instants, all read at the frame's valid time: the total runs from the start of the run to that time. Liquid-equivalent: snow counts as the water it melts to. GFS and ECMWF only, the two models here that publish an instantaneous rate.
Six-hourly to 144 hours. ECMWF's 00Z and 12Z runs forecast out to 360 hours, its 06Z and 18Z runs to 144. The frames past the one shown load on demand. Uncorrected model output.
This map is drawn from model output we store ourselves, not from anyone's picture of it, and is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The per-city read of the same day — which cities the models are fighting about, and what the discussion makes of it — is on the national page. Every model's full forecast for any of these cities, or anywhere else, is in the beta: request an invite; it's free during the beta.
Sources and licences
- ECMWF: IFS, from ECMWF's open data. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This ECMWF data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
What we change: each field is cropped to the frame these maps share when we download it, and each map then smooths, contours, differences or ranks those numbers as its Methodology says. These are our maps of the providers' numbers, not their products, and none of them has reviewed or endorsed this site.
Coastlines, borders, lakes and place names: Natural Earth, public domain.