Where the weather models disagree in Minneapolis
Minneapolis, MSP station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Wed Nov 4, where 5 of them put Minneapolis's high anywhere from 48° to 63°: GEM coldest, AIFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 7-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead (4 to 7 models across these days), so a narrower far end can mean fewer models.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centers Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are omitted because they average the other models.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. A wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not, so compare each day's Spread with this column.
GEFS p10–p90 is NOAA's GFS ensemble, in its own column because it runs warmer than the other models.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 64° to 69° | 5° | 5° | UKMO 64° | GFS 69° | 63° to 68° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 53° to 57° | 4° | 6° | AIFS 53° | GFS 57° | 55° to 59° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 53° to 58° | 5° | 6° | AIGFS 53° | GFS 58° | 54° to 58° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 53° to 59° | 6° | 7° | ICON 53° | ECMWF 59° | 52° to 57° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 61° to 67° | 6° | 8° | ICON 61° | ECMWF 67° | 54° to 63° |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 59° to 64° | 5° | 11° | GFS 59° | GEM 64° | 56° to 63° |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 56° to 66° | 10° | 11° | GFS 56° | AIFS 66° | 53° to 59° |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 48° to 63° | 15° | 11° | GEM 48° | AIFS 63° | 46° to 60° |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 42° to 56° | 14° | 13° | ECMWF 42° | GFS 56° | 44° to 59° |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 37° to 48° | 11° | 13° | AIGFS 37° | GFS 48° | 43° to 57° |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 41° to 46° | 5° | 12° | AIGFS 41° | AIFS 46° | 39° to 56° |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 42° to 51° | 9° | 14° | AIGFS 42° | AIFS 51° | 39° to 56° |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 38° to 52° | 14° | 15° | AIGFS 38° | AIFS 52° | 43° to 59° |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 40° to 53° | 13° | 14° | AIGFS 40° | AIFS 53° | 39° to 59° |
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