Which weather model is most accurate in Orlando?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Orlando at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against ERA5 reanalysis once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-05 to 2026-08-04), for daily high temperature.
One day out, ECMWF AIFS (AI) has been most accurate (typical miss 1.2°F); at three days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.54°F); at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (2.84°F).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 7.01°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.15°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.2° (-0.1°) | 1.5° (-0.5°) | 2.8° (-1.1°) | 31 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.4° (-0.6°) | 1.9° (-0.4°) | 3.1° (-1.2°) | 31 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 2.3° (+1.8°) | 1.8° (+0.5°) | 3.1° (+0.7°) | 31 |
| DWD ICON | 3.2° (+3.1°) | 3.7° (+3.2°) | — | 31 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.3° (+2.5°) | 7.1° (+7.0°) | 7.5° (+7.2°) | 31 |
| UKMO (UK) | 4.0° (+3.9°) | 3.8° (+3.2°) | — | 31 |
| GEM (Canada) | 4.2° (+3.7°) | 4.0° (+3.9°) | 4.9° (+4.5°) | 31 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.8° (+1.6°) | 1.9° (+1.7°) | 2.4° (+2.1°) | 31 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.1° (+0.0°) | 1.2° (+0.0°) | 2.1° (-0.0°) | 31 |
Method, honestly
Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily highs. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 86–99; it hit 84. AIFS led (off 0.3°); ICON ran 6° hot.
- Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 83–87; it hit 86. ICON led (off 0.7°); AIGFS ran 4° cold.
- Sat Aug 1 13 days out the models said 82–96; it hit 87. GEM led (off 2.4°); GFS ran 9° hot.
- Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 83–98; it hit 88. UKMO led (off 0.2°); GFS ran 5° hot.
- Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 80–100; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 0.5°); GEM ran 8° hot.
- Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 84–100; it hit 89. AIFS led (off 0.1°); GFS ran 7° hot.
- Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 82–98; it hit 90. AIFS led (off 1.1°); AIGFS ran 6° hot.
- Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 82–93; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.3°); AIGFS ran 6° hot.
- Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 86–98; it hit 92. AIGFS led (off 0.3°); GEM ran 5° hot.
- Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 91–97; it hit 93. AIFS led (off 0.8°); GFS ran 6° hot.
- Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 85–96; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 1.0°); GFS ran 6° hot.
- Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 90–98; it hit 93. ECMWF led (off 1.4°); GFS ran 5° hot.
- Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 89–98; it hit 92. AIFS led (off 0.3°); GFS ran 6° hot.
- Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 88–98; it hit 92. AIFS led (off 0.7°); GFS ran 7° hot.
- Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 87–97; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.1°); GFS ran 8° hot.
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