Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Jul 30?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 80° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. ERA5 says the day verified at 85° with 0.48 in of precipitation — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-07-17 | 80° | 90° | 85° | — | 100° | — | — | 80–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-18 | 88° | 91° | 92° | — | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 11d · 2026-07-19 | 87° | 93° | 85° | — | 101° | — | — | 85–101° |
| 10d · 2026-07-20 | 86° | 84° | 93° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 9d · 2026-07-21 | 85° | 87° | 90° | 93° | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 8d · 2026-07-22 | 89° | 85° | 89° | 91° | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 7d · 2026-07-23 | 88° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 86° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 6d · 2026-07-24 | 84° | 83° | 87° | 92° | 93° | 91° | 93° | 83–93° |
| 5d · 2026-07-25 | 85° | 85° | 84° | 95° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 84–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-26 | 87° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 88° | 85–92° |
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 88° | 81° | 92° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 81–92° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 89° | 84° | 84° | 90° | 87° | 83° | 83–90° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 81° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 87° | 81–89° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 81° | 81° | 86° | 93° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 81–93° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.