Was the forecast right for Orlando on Tue Jul 21?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 88° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. ERA5 says the day verified at 92° with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-17 | 91° | 88° | 90° | 93° | 97° | 88° | 98° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-18 | 91° | 91° | 91° | 98° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-19 | 92° | 91° | 90° | 97° | 98° | 91° | 94° | 90–98° |
| 1d · 2026-07-20 | 91° | 92° | 90° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 94° | 90–97° |
| 0d · 2026-07-21 | 92° | 92° | 90° | 95° | 98° | 94° | 95° | 90–98° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.