Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Jul 27?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 82° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 90° with 0.34 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-17 | 87° | 82° | 89° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 9d · 2026-07-18 | 90° | 90° | 81° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-19 | 88° | 85° | 79° | 89° | 99° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 7d · 2026-07-20 | 91° | 87° | 86° | 95° | 86° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 6d · 2026-07-21 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 85° | 97° | 93° | — | 85–97° |
| 5d · 2026-07-22 | 90° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 98° | 94° | 96° | 85–98° |
| 4d · 2026-07-23 | 90° | 87° | 84° | 90° | 98° | 91° | 94° | 84–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-24 | 89° | 87° | 85° | 85° | 98° | 92° | 92° | 85–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-25 | 89° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 96° | 92° | 96° | 87–96° |
| 1d · 2026-07-26 | 91° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 93° | 90° | 93° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 95° | 86° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 85–95° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.