Which weather model is most accurate in Oklahoma City?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Oklahoma City at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against ERA5 reanalysis once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-06 to 2026-08-05), for daily high temperature.
One day out, GEM (Canada) has been most accurate (typical miss 1.18°F); at three days, DWD ICON (2.13°F); at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (3.92°F).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 5.94°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.97°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEM (Canada) | 1.2° (-0.4°) | 2.4° (+0.6°) | 4.9° (+1.9°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 1.2° (+0.7°) | 2.1° (+1.8°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.3° (+0.8°) | 2.7° (+2.0°) | 5.6° (+2.9°) | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.5° (-0.9°) | 2.5° (-1.6°) | 4.2° (-2.4°) | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.6° (-0.3°) | 2.1° (-0.2°) | 3.9° (-1.2°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 2.0° (+1.6°) | 5.9° (+5.9°) | 8.9° (+8.4°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 2.0° (+1.5°) | 3.1° (+2.1°) | — | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.5° (-0.2°) | 2.2° (+0.1°) | 4.1° (+1.9°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.0° (+0.0°) | 1.8° (-0.0°) | 3.6° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily highs. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 84–104; it hit 99. ICON led (off 0.1°).
- Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 90–117; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.1°); AIFS ran 2° cold.
- Sat Aug 1 14 days out the models said 91–110; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.2°).
- Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 91–116; it hit 107. GEM led (off 0.5°); AIGFS ran 7° cold.
- Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 90–110; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.3°).
- Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 94–112; it hit 103. ICON led (off 0.4°).
- Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 93–115; it hit 103. AIGFS led (off 0.2°); AIFS ran 3° cold.
- Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 88–111; it hit 102. GEM led (off 0.1°); UKMO ran 2° hot.
- Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 87–106; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.3°).
- Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 85–106; it hit 100. AIFS led (off 0.1°); UKMO ran 3° hot.
- Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 88–109; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.1°); GFS ran 3° cold.
- Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 85–109; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.0°).
- Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 88–113; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 0.3°); AIGFS ran 4° cold.
- Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 99–112; it hit 107. ECMWF led (off 0.5°); AIGFS ran 4° cold.
- Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 95–105; it hit 99. GFS led (off 0.1°); AIFS ran 3° hot.
Other cities
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.