Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 3?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 84° to 104°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. ERA5 says the day verified at 99° — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-19 | — | 94° | — | — | 114° | — | — | 94–114° |
| 14d · 2026-07-20 | 95° | 84° | 104° | — | 95° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 13d · 2026-07-21 | 101° | 91° | 97° | — | 112° | — | — | 91–112° |
| 12d · 2026-07-22 | 102° | 96° | 92° | — | 118° | — | — | 92–118° |
| 11d · 2026-07-23 | 101° | 82° | 104° | — | 102° | — | — | 82–104° |
| 10d · 2026-07-24 | 93° | 87° | 98° | — | 107° | — | — | 87–107° |
| 9d · 2026-07-25 | 91° | 94° | 97° | 98° | 106° | — | — | 91–106° |
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 90° | 92° | 98° | 99° | 101° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 92° | 95° | 94° | 105° | — | — | 92–105° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 93° | 97° | 98° | 102° | 98° | 97° | 93–102° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 95° | 93° | 98° | 94° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 93–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 96° | 95° | 100° | 98° | 104° | 99° | 98° | 95–104° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 97° | 96° | 103° | 99° | 107° | 99° | 100° | 96–107° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 98° | 97° | 100° | 98° | 106° | 98° | 100° | 97–106° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 97° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 100° | 99° | 100° | 97–100° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 98° | 98° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 99° | 99° | 97–99° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.