Which weather model is most accurate in Los Angeles?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Los Angeles at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against ERA5 reanalysis once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-06 to 2026-08-05), for daily high temperature.
One day out, ECMWF IFS has been most accurate (typical miss 1.95°F); at three days, ECMWF IFS (2.05°F); at seven days, GEM (Canada) (2.22°F).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 9.31°F at 1-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.08°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF IFS | 1.9° (-1.4°) | 2.0° (-0.4°) | 4.1° (-3.2°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 2.9° (-2.6°) | 2.4° (-0.9°) | 2.7° (-0.3°) | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 3.2° (-3.0°) | 2.1° (-0.4°) | 2.2° (+0.7°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 3.5° (-3.4°) | 3.5° (-3.5°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 6.6° (-6.6°) | 5.7° (-5.7°) | 5.4° (-5.3°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 7.4° (-7.4°) | 6.4° (-6.4°) | — | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 9.3° (-9.3°) | 8.8° (-8.8°) | 8.1° (-8.1°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 6.7° (-6.7°) | 6.7° (-6.7°) | 7.7° (-7.7°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.1° (+0.0°) | 1.3° (-0.0°) | 1.7° (-0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily highs. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 1.8°); AIGFS ran 13° cold.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 86–95; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.1°); AIGFS ran 14° cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 87–97; it hit 96. GFS led (off 0.3°); AIGFS ran 16° cold.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 85–94; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 1.0°); AIGFS ran 16° cold.
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 83–92; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 1.8°); AIGFS ran 15° cold.
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.